Who rides the Goodwood Roller Coaster like a demon? (and who clings on for dear life!?)

Why so glum Hughesie? You freakin’ nail this place!!

Which jockeys are the experts at negotiating the twists and turns of Goodwood?

Glorious Goodwood. Five days of splendor over the rolling Sussex Downs.

Well it’s splendor for some. For others it’s a little slice of hell!

Not only do you need a horse that will act at the greenest amusement park in the world but you also need a jockey who can negotiate the best path and safest route so that they can gun their horse for the gaps when they appear.

Some jockey’s have mastered this spine-tingling track whilst others, well, they seem to find more trouble than Luis Suarez in a…well…just Luis Saurez in general!!

That’s no slight on any jockey though. As in any sport, or indeed any walk of life, certain competitors have particular strengths and weaknesses and for some Goodwood enhances their strong points and for others it exposes their weaknesses.

In today’s post I want to point you towards a clutch of riders who excel at Goodwood (yes, Richard Hughes is obviously in that group!) and I also want to highlight a set of jockeys who just struggle to ride to the best of their abilities at the track.

For this report I’m looking at all Goodwood meetings since the start of 2011 and only concentrating on races over 7 furlongs or further.

Why? Well personally I feel those races are more of a challenge that the straight track sprints. Sure, those sprints still need the utmost jockey-ship skills to navigate the blistering and break-neck charge of a Glorious Goodwood sprint but the 7 furlong+ races have that added spice of turns and extra undulations; you need to be in the prime slot coming round the bend or it’s pretty much game over.

In layman’s terms the sprints are more Aberdeen Fun Beach and Amusement Park (still pretty bumpy, but manageable) whereas the 7f+ races are more like Alton Towers (hold on tight, this is gonna be scary!). I’ve never ridden a thoroughbred round Goodwood but I’ve been to both those Amusement Parks, so don’t argue with the analogy!

Let’s crack on…

Goodwood Jockey’s: The one’s with their eyes open on the Roller Coaster…

Richard Hughes

No Goodwood report would be right without Hughesie!

Here are his 7f+ figures at the track since 2011…

36 winners from 173 rides | 21% strike-rate | +£87.57 BFLSP – 29% above expectation

Can’t knock those stats and he is easily the winning-most rider at the track over these longer trips.

His strong areas are…

Group races – 11/29 | 38% S/R | +£14.88 BFLSP – 93% above expectation

Front two in the market – 27/82 | 33% S/R | +£32.55 BFLSP – 34% above expectation

Richard Hughes rides will be well supported in the market. His record at the track is no secret but you can’t hide from the facts and the facts are he is one of the best at riding this track.

 

Now we have the obvious out of the way who else should we be looking out for?

 

Tom Queally

Queally isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but the figures suggest he knows his stuff at this track.

Here are his 7f+ figures at the track since 2011…

16 winners from 86 rides | 19% strike-rate | +£2.66 BFLSP – 25% above expectation

Decent strike rate and a healthy crop of winners although the level stakes profit could be done with a boost.

Here are his strong areas…

Hold-Up runners – 9/40 | 23% S/R | +£26.90 BFLSP – 79% above expectation

Non-Hcps | top 3 in market – 12/26 | 46% S/R | +£18.38 BFLSP – 51% above expectation

 

William Buick

Buick will have a decent bunch of rides to choose from but he still has to get them home in front and to date he has proven perfectly capable of doing just that.

Here are his 7f+ figures at the track since 2011…

16 winners from 103 rides | 16% S/R | +£2.14 BFLSP – 5% above expectation

Solid figures and plenty winner but as always they can be improved upon.

Here are his strong areas…

9f – 12f races – 13/48 | 27% S/R | +£39.30 BFLSP – 41% above expectation

Riding for Jeremy Noseda – 5/9 | 56% S/R | +£20.11 BFLSP – 300% above expectation

Top 2 in the market – 13/38 | 34% S/R | +£19.17 BFLSP – 33% above expectation

Three-Year-Olds – 10/41 | 24% S/R | +£31.81 BFLSP – 30% above expectation

 

Frankie Dettori

Old Lanfranco has had his fair share of ups and downs recently but he seems to be getting back to something near his best (doubt he will ever get right back to his best) and this is a track he manages to navigate with relative ease.

Here are his 7f+ figures at the track since 2011…

12 winners from 64 rides | 19% S/R | -£0.21 BFLSP – 19% above expectation

Decent strike-rate there but backing him blind has made a minor dent in profits.

His strong areas are…

Non-Handicaps – 9/33 | 27% S/R | +£18.14 BFLSP – 40% above expectation

Top 4 last time out – 11/42 | 26% S/R | +£16.71 BFLSP – 47% above expectation 

 

Franny Norton

A less obvious one this but he certainly pays his way on the Sussex Downs.

Here are his 7f+ figures at the track since 2011…

7 winners from 38 rides | 18% S/R | +£24.56 BFLSP – 99% above expectation

Franny Norton hasn’t actually bagged a winner at Glorious Goodwood over these trips in the time analysed but he does ride the track well and should be given at least a second glance.

Here are his hot-spots…

Running within 20 days of last start – 7/23 | 30% S/R | +£39.56 BFLSP – 266% above expectation

Front-Runners – 4/9 | 44% S/R | +£10.79 BFLSP – Win & Place – 6/9 | 67% S/R – 240 above expectations

 

So those are the jocks’ we want on our side but who are the ones we need to be wary of? Those guys that let the Roller Coaster ride them (ooh er missus!) and not the other way round.

Goodwood Jockey’s: The one’s with their eyes SHUT on the Roller Coaster…

Again these figures look at their rides over 7f+ from the start of 2011…

Jamie Spencer – 3 winners from 50 rides | 6% S/R | -£36.41 BFLSP – 34% below expectation

Silvestre De Sousa – 3 winners from 78 rides | 4% S/R | -£56.40 BFLSP – 62% below expectation

Paul Hanagan – 2 winners from 74 rides | 3% S/R | -£43.40 BFLSP – 75% below expectation

Jim Crowley – 4 winners from 90 rides | 4% S/R | -£20.94 BFLSP – 52% below expectation

David Probert – 4 winners from 62 rides | 6% S/R | -£11.46 BFLSP – 24% below expectation

Some drastically below par efforts from some top riders there.

As mentioned before not every jockey will be suited by every track. Jockeys have many different strengths and weaknesses and some simply won’t be suited by this demanding test.

I’m sure the above jockeys will grab a winner or two between them over the five days of the Glorious Goodwood Festival, they don’t suddenly become poor jockeys over night. They do, however, seem to have a bit of a ‘blind-spot’ at this track and the figures tell us they have been struggling to convert their opportunities.

Approach the above group with caution!

…but make sure you enjoy Glorious Goodwood as a whole! Hopefully with the help of the stat bursting post you have just read 🙂

 

Figures have been sourced from the excellent Proform Professional Database – Highly recommended by BDH

 

 

Proform Racing | The Professionals Form Database

A word on the other big G for this week…

Yes. There is another G on the go this week. Over in Ireland. GALWAY!

I personally don’t get overly involved in that meeting from a punting perspective.

One man who does, however, is my good friend Tony McCormick from Irish Big Race Trends.

He has produced a cracking give-away for everyone, which can be downloaded from the following link…

>>> FREE Galway Give-away

At the bottom of that PDF is another link to a free micro-trends PDF, which in my opinion is worth a good read, especially if you like trends and ESPECIALLY if you plan on having a punt at the Galway Festival 2014!

*Apologies. There appears to be a problem with the Micro-Trends link. I’ve contacted Tony to see what issue is.

**Now sorted and Free Micro-Trends guides can be found here >> http://wp.me/P2XQmd-Yv

Enjoy

Ben (BDH)

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