Victoria Cup Pace & Trends Analysis…

Does O’Meara hold the aces in the Victoria Cup?

 

Where does the pace come from in the Victoria Cup?

29 runners blasting down the Ascot straight 7 furlongs…

Just the type of puzzle I love trying to solve!

It’s not a race that appears on the full BDH service as it doesn’t quite fit my strict parameters but it will almost certainly be a race that provides me with a Badly Drawn Horse or two to add to the BDH Squad.

I like to take a look over the pace angle for these races if I think they will provide potential squad members that will lead to future profitable punting activities and this is how I see today’s Victoria Cup…

Victoria Cup Pace

2015 Victoria Cup Pace Map

Strangely enough it doesn’t appear to be a race that is packed full of potential pace-setters.

LINCOLN from stall 25 is certainly an option although they do occasionally try and restrain him so he isn’t a guarantee to go from the front.

OUTBACK TRAVELLER is the other possible pace angle from stall 13.

Apart from that it looks a bit thread-bare on the pace front.

The pace map suggests to me that there be a slight advantage to the middle to high numbers here as plenty of the low numbers (stall 12 and below) generally like to be held up to some degree, unfortunately they won’t get all that much cover from in front.

A lot depends on what Lincoln does to be honest although even if he doesn’t blast away there are more close to pace runners up high than down below.

From experience races with this kind of pace make-up don’t always plan out as expected but I’m happy to give a slightly stronger nod to those drawn middle to high.

It will certainly be interesting to see exactly how this plays out when I drop the review notes in the members area at the start of next week. Fingers crossed there is a significant split-pace-draw advantage and I get to add a couple of chunky BDH Members to the squad.

Victoria Cup Trends Analysis

As mentioned this isn’t a race that gets the full trends treatment from myself although I do have a set of six trends that I’m going to use to look for runners with the prime profile based on the previous 9 winners of this race.

The trends I’m using are…

8/9 carried 9-01 or less to victory

8/9 were rated OR 96 or less

8/9 didn’t win last time out (last time out winners are 1/47)

7/9 were aged 4 or 5

7/9 ran held-up

Claiming jockey’s are 1/62

A strict application of those trends leaves us with…

SHYRON (stall 27)

RUSSIAN REALM (Stall 24)

DREAM SPIRIT (Stall 20)

SO BELOVED (Stall 3)

If we go back to my pace analysis then there is potential for SO BELOVED to be drawn on the wrong side (away from the pace). Again there doesn’t look to be a hard and fast pace split but in a race with 29 runners you do have to make some marginal calls and I’m happy to side with those drawn in the high numbers from the shortlist. I’m also of the opinion that So Beloved may just be better on easier tracks (form of 1121 on flat tracks whilst he is 0/10, 1 place on more undulating tracks).

Then there were three…

Of those three both RUSSIAN REALM and SHYRON are the most likeliest to be held up, the preferred running style of recent winners of this race.

RUSSIAN REALM is a horse I know well and I definitely think he is better than his current mark. Today is his first start for David O’Meara and if anyone is going to improve a horse these days it’s O’Meara!! I don’t know what he feeds these recruits he gets from others yards but I tell you now I want some of it! Richard Hughes also takes the ride for the first time today and the horse may just appreciate the easier style of Hughes than the more forceful style of Ryan Moore that he is used to.

SHYRON is an unexposed type from the George Margarson yard (who won this race two years ago) and with his previous turf win coming over a straight 7f there is every chance he will be suited by today’s race. He also runs well fresh (form of 12117 after a break of 31 days+).

I’ll stick with that two and consider pulling DREAM SPIRIT in as cover, he isn’t all that easy to assess as a 4yo with only 4 starts under his belt.

Although I would love to nail the winner in this (clearly!!) it’s more a race where I’ll be keeping a beady eye on with future winners and BDH Squad members fully at the front of my mind.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. you can still join the full BDH service here…


...although I will be closing doors next week at some stage.

*Pace map created with the aid of the Proform professional Database

 

 

 

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