Royal Ascot 2015: Pointers and Pitfalls…

Where is the best spot to profit from the Gosden Royal Ascot runners?

The Derby is done and dusted and we are now reaching mid-June. For us racing fans that can mean only one thing; the 5 day carnival of racing that is Royal Ascot.

As with all of these monstrous racing festivals I like to get stuck in to the trends and stats associated with the meeting, looking for the profitable pointers and perilous pitfalls to help make my week pay whilst at the same time avoiding those no go areas.

I’m not one to rely on the trends and stats in isolation but they do make a a solid base camp for tackling a meeting of such a magnitude as Royal Ascot.

To help you with your own analysis here are a smattering of Royal Ascot 2015 pointers and pitfalls to usher you in the right direction…

*Figures have been sourced from the excellent Proform software and concentrate on the last 6 Royal Ascot meetings

Royal Ascot 2015: Pointers and Pitfalls

 

General Trends

 

Claiming jockeys seriously struggle to land any significant blows…

Royal Ascot is no place for the youngster on his or her way up. It’s a cut and thrust week where no quarter is taken. If you are still learning your trade be prepared for a week of hard-knocks!

The bare figures for claiming jockeys at the meeting over the past six seasons are…

1/97 | 1% S/R | -£86.09 BFLSP – Win & Place 7/97 | 7% S/R

This is one meeting where the weight taken off the horse’s back by the young jockey doesn’t make-up for the inexperience in the saddle.

If a claimer does manage to navigate these choppy waters and lead his mount to victory then chances are they are destined for bigger and better things…

 

A Windsor warm-up is a serious no-no…

They may both be Royal racetracks but don’t let that sway you, a warm-up at the ‘lesser’ Royal track is far from a desirable route to take.

Take a look at the figures…

0/64 | 0% S/R | -£64.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/64 | 9% S/R

Nothing. Nada. Zilch. The Royal tracks do NOT compliment each other.

You have been warned.

 

Horses returning off a short break generally find the task beyond them…

By short I mean returning within the last 10 days.

Here are the figures…

4/173 | 2% S/R | -£117.60 BFLSP – 23/173 | 13% S/R

Clearly it’s not impossible to win off the back of a recent run but it’s certainly difficult.

Ascot is a place where they are all (give or take a handful) gunning for the prize. The horses will have been fine-tuned for their specific targets. A run within the past 10 days gives you little recovery time and the wisest decision, unless there are uber-strong pointers elsewhere, is to steer clear.

 

It would be silly to overlook the Dansili kids…

If there is one sire you want to keep a close eye on over the five days then it’s DANSILI.

His figures are easily the most eye-catching and his progeny clearly enjoy the test that Royal Ascot provides.

The bare figures for his kids are…

11/55 | 20% S/R | +£27.31 BFLSP – Win & Place 24/55 | 44% S/R

The real sweet-spot, however, is his 3yo & 4yo kids running over the 8f – 12f trips.

They return…

10/34 | 29% S/R | +£40.56 BFLSP – Win & Place 19/34 | 56% S/R

 

Whilst Dansili kids relish the Ascot challenge the offspring of the following two sires need to be approached with serious caution…

Invincible Spirit – 1/55 | 2% S/R | -£53.17 BFLSP – Win & Place 7/55 | 13% S/R

Acclamation – 1/51 | 2% S/R | -£44.35 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/51 | 16% S/R

For whatever reason the kids of Invincible Spirit & Acclamation really struggle to get to grips with the red-hot Royal Ascot environment.

 

Now lets take a closer look at the Royal Ascot handicaps…

 

Handicap Trends

*There have been 54 handicaps over the last 6 Royal Ascots

 

The Hannon’s have struggled to find the winners enclosure with their handicap runners…

The Royal Ascot handicaps have not been a happy hunting ground for Richard Hannon Senior OR Junior.

Their six year figures read…

0/55 | 0% S/R | -£55.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/55 | 20% S/R

That’s plenty of shots at glory and plenty of misses.

I suspect they simple do not have all that many well-handicapped types on their books and that makes the job of landing one of the competitive Royal Ascot handicaps all that much tougher.

Don’t be put off having an each-way dabble though as the place strike-rate isn’t all that bad.

 

Horses with two or less runs in the last year (last 365 days) are just not cutting the handicap mustard…

Lightly raced types that have been hiding their true colours from the evil Mr Handicapper must have a great chance of landing the spoils.

Right?

Wrong!

Clearly it’s a benefit to not come into your designated target as an over-exposed type with your full hand on show but super-slow-playing your hand is not the way to approach things.

Look at the figures for runners with only two or less runs on the board in the last 365 days…

2/86 | 2% S/R | -£75.84 BFLSP – Win & place 14/86 | 16% S/R

If you are short of match practice coming into the contest then chances are you will be going home empty handed at the close of play.

Beware of those that have super-slow-played their handicap hands…

 

The older brigade struggle against their less battled hardened younger counterparts…

Like most of these big festivals the younger and less-exposed types rule the roost over the grizzly ‘old’ campaigners.

At this meeting it is the 8yo+ handicappers that find their creaking limbs playing against them…

1/51 | 2% S/R | -£33.13 BFLSP – Win & Place 4/51 | 8% S/R

Unless you have strong reasons to back an older runner in the handicaps the percentage play is to leave them alone.

 

A beach warm-up is no way to prepare…

…and by beach I obviously mean the All-Weather.

Again this may be connections trying to under-play their hand but the stats tell us that simply isn’t a wise move…

1/69 | 1% S/R | -£64.88 BFLSP – Win & Place 9/69 | 13% S/R

A trip to the beach always seems like a good idea at the time but the facts are you will be picking sand out of your toes/hooves for weeks to come and you just don’t need that discomfort at Royal Ascot!!

 

Away from that barrage of negative angles…

 

67% (36 of the 54 winners) of Royal Ascot handicap winners finished in the top two last time out…

…and surprisingly it’s a profitable angle to follow….

Finished in the top 2 last time out

36/421 | 9% S/R | +£80.27 BFLSP | Win & Place 108/421 | 26% S/R

Despite it being profitable you are placing a lot of bets and rather than follow it blindly I would, again, use it as a starting pointer or simply for placing a positive marker against a runner.

 

Finally lets take a quick dig around the non-handicap Royal Ascot races…

 

Non-Handicap Trends

 

John Gosden is very much a man to follow in these races…

…and off the back of a 1-2 in the Epsom Derby it’s safe to say he enters this years meeting brimming with confidence.

These are the bare figures for Gosden in the Royal Ascot non-handicap races from the past six seasons…

11/67 | 16% S/R | +£25.02 BFLSP – Win & Place 26/67 | 39% S/R

On their own they are pretty decent, however, we can tighten them up even further…

John Gosden Royal Ascot runners | Top 2 in the market | Top 6 finish last time out

9/38 | 24% S/R | +£37.83 BFLSP – Win & Place 20/38 | 53% S/R

With almost 1 in 4 winning and a tasty profit to boot, from runners that are fancied to run well anyway, this is an angle well worth keeping in mind.

 

If it’s a combo you’re after in the non-handicap races then you need look no further than the following power-duo…

Moore & Stoute continue to dominate in the Royal Ascot non-handicap races…

As obvious as it may seem to concentrate on these two the figures tell us that in this case obvious is best…

10/36 | 28% S/R | +£12.72 BFLSP – Win & Place 19/36 | 53% S/R

Not earth-shattering returns but it’s a healthy enough profit and the fact they hit the mark 28% of the time is pretty impressive.

As always though we can tighten it up a fair bit with one simple filter…

Moore/Stoute Royal Ascot runners | Non-handicaps | Not Group 1 races

9/20 | 45% S/R | +£23.63 BFLSP – Win & Place 14/20 | 70% S/R

Frankly those are insane figures at such a high profile meeting! 45% WIN strike-rate and a 70% WIN & PLACE strike-rate! Wow!

It may seem too simple but the facts are that simple has led to the house of profit in the past six seasons!

 

If you are getting involved in the punt-athon that is Royal Ascot 2015 (which lets face it you will be!) then the above should give you a decent basis to start narrowing the fields to find those all important profitable bets.

Ben (BDH)

 

 

With thanks to…

 

Proform Racing | The professional Formbook

 

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