Nine vital Epsom Derby trends…

Who is set to follow in the hoof-prints of Australia?

The 2015 Epsom Derby.

Safe to say it’s an open renewal!

Will 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles run? (half way through writing this he was scratched from race!)

If Gleneagles doesn’t run does Aidan O’Brien have anything worthy of landing his 4th Derby on the spin?

Is Dante winner Golden Horn really a 7/4 shot?

Was the Jack Hobbs bubble really burst in the Dante or was it just a minor blip?

Is Dermot Weld sneaking in quietly through the back door with Zawraq?

In truth, however, I don’t give two hoots about those questions!

I let the stats guide me.

What I really want to know is…

Who are the prime fits on the race profile trends?

And

Who fits the rock solid dosage trends?

It’s a race I obviously cover on my full service but today I’m going to provide you with 4 vital trends that all of the last 15 Derby winners have passed as well as two other trends 14 of the last 15 winners have passed.

I also want to give you some dosage pointers for the big race.

So let’s get started…

Derby Trends

 

1             15/15 were yet to contest a handicap

2             15/15 ran in a group race last time out

3             15/15 had 1 or 2 runs in season

4             15/15 had 2 or less attempts at breaking their maiden

5             14/15 had won over 7f+ as a 2yo

6             14/15 finished in the top 2 last time out

 

From current entries there are three who score full marks (Dosage figures in brackets)…

EPICURIS (2-4-10-0-0 | / | 16 | 2.20 | 0.50)

GIOVANNI CANALETTO (9-0-21-8-0 | 20+ | 38 | 1.05 | 0.26)

GOLDEN HORN (5-3-12-2-0 | 20+ | 22 | 1.75 | 0.50)

There are also a clutch who only fall down on one of the trends…

BEST OF TIMES (6-0-8-0-2 | / | 16 | 1.67 | 0.50)

ELM PARK (3-0-7-1-1 | / | 12 | 1.18 | 0.25)

JACK HOBBS (4-0-5-2-1 | / | 12 | 1.18 | 0.33)

MOHEET (2-0-9-4-1 | / | 16 | 0.68 | 0.25)

ZAWRAQ (7-0-17-4-0 | 20+ | 28 | 1.24 | 0.36)

That’s still a chunky enough list so lets see if the Dosage trims it down a touch.

Here are some of the major Dosage trends for the Derby…

Derby Dosage Trends

 

11/15 had 30 points or more in their DP

13/15 had a DI of 1.13 or below

12/15 had a CD between 0.28 & -0.23

 

Applying those to the race trends shortlist trims it down to…

GIOVANNI CANALETTO

ELM PARK

MOHEET

 

That probably won’t be my final shortlist, I’ve still to run the field through the full race trends profile (it stretches to 19), but it gives me a good starting base to work with and also helps me start to build a picture of the race and the likely contenders.

The Derby would be one of the strongest races on the calendar for both the race profile trends and the dosage trends and it’s a race I personally love getting stuck into.

The trends above are only a smattering of the weapons I use to drill down into the race but they will give you a solid avenue into this years renewal and should help you with your own analysis.

As well as being a race that I love attacking from a trends perspective the Derby is also a race I love watching.

I love the build-up.

I love the buzz in the lead up to the gates opening and the runners making their charge towards Tattenham Corner.

Hell I even love that crazy wishing well prediction thingy?!?

I do, however, wish that the BBC still held the rights to show the race.

Nothing against Channel 4, nothing at all, but get the Derby back on the BBC and you will get significantly more viewers. That’s a fact. And this race deserves more viewers.

More viewers equals more interest in horse racing and more people talking about horse racing. And that keeps this wonderful sport alive.

It’s not the answer to all issues (far from it) but I often feel that Channel 4 racing  is our (racing fans) dirty little secret. I imagine it is unlikely a non-racing fan would make a conscious decision to flick over to Channel 4 to see what the fuss is all about. They would, however, in some bizarre logic, take a peek at the BBC coverage. It’s safer for them, more comfortable, more within their comfort zone.

Maybe it’s the more recognisable faces on the BBC that helps.

A non-racing fan is more likely to know a Clare Balding, Willie Carson, John Parrott or Suzi Perry. Hell, pull in Gary Lineker and you’re laughing!

A non-racing fan can’t relate to a Nick Luck, Graham Cunningham, Jim McGrath or Emma Spencer. I mean I’m a racing fan through and through yet sometimes I feel like I’m watching a bloody old boys club! It’s simply too cliquey to convert an occasional fan to a full-time convert.

99% of the year it doesn’t matter. It’s only us racing fans that are tuning in anyway.

However, there are certain points throughout the year where racing has the opportunity to attract and convert new fans, sell itself to the masses.

The Derby is one of those points.

The BBC can attract a bigger audience and can speak to the general public without it seeming like you are at a party you have not been invited to.

Get the Derby back on the BBC. It makes sense.

Ben (BDH)

 

 

 

1 Comment

  • Philip Clayton (Pennies Punter)

    Reply Reply June 3, 2015

    Am on Giovanni C at 16’s and have had a speculative amount on Epicuris. I do think it is a race that over the last few years has become very sub-standard in relation to its illustrious history. There has no been a good winner in years. A good Derby winner should go on to dominate his peers and win the Arc; alas this no longer happens and I think the Derby is slowly becoming irrelevant to the big boys/girls in racing.

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