It’s a family affair: The Moore’s give you more when you know where to look…

 “I think we are about tenth in line when it comes to who he rides for!”

 

Those were the words of trainer Gary Moore after his son Ryan Moore rode LADY MARL to victory for the yard at Windsor ten days ago.

And he is probably correct. There are a number of higher profile yards that Ryan Moore rides for above his dads runners. But Gary is Ryan’s dad. Ryan is Gary’s son. There is an unbreakable bond. Gary will want to put his son on winners, Ryan will want to ride winners for his dad.

But what do the stats say and why am I thinking about this?

Well family connections are often on my mind in racing, specifically trainer parents and jockey offspring. I’m convinced there are profitable niche angles within these families and I want to exploit them, for yours and my benefit.

I’m starting with the Moore dynasty today, for no other reason than that comment from Gary Moore is fresh in my brain. And hey, who needs an excuse to write about the grumpy maestro Ryan Moore!

Here are what the stats say for the Moore/Moore partnership since the beginning of 2011…

32 winners from 156 rides | 21% S/R | -£44.14 BFLSP – Win & Place 67/156 | 43% S/R

They win pretty much bang on what the market expects and the level stakes loss is no surprise to me.

If we look at in from a yearly breakdown we get…

2011 – 11/40 | 28% | +£2.65 BFLSP

2012 – 5/33 | 15% S/R | -£21.50 BFLSP

2013 – 10/64 | 15% S/R | -£34.78 BFLSP

2014 – 6/19 | 32% S/R | +£9.49 BFLSP

I think it’s interesting that last year Ryan rode for his dad 64 times.

Now he isn’t really title chasing does that free him up for more rides for his dad?

Even more interesting is perhaps the strong stats they are showing so far this year.

Does his dad have a stronger string this year. Has the success of Sire De Grugy over the jumps in the last couple of seasons brought some better horses into the yard under both codes?

From a punting perspective, however, we need to dig a bit deeper into the stats to find those profitable sub angles. So here goes…

Favourites have been a profitable avenue…

When the Moore’s team up on favourites we should take notice…

26 winners from 62 runners | 42% S/R | +£11.69 BFLSP – Win & Place 37/62 | 60% S/R

They are firing above expectation and they are profitable; it isn’t always a bad thing to look for the obvious.

In form runners are worth noting…

Specifically those that finished in the top two last time out…

20 winners from 55 runners | 36% S/R | +£14.28 BFLSP – Win & Place 28/55 | 51% S/R

Again this lot are firing above expectation and are profitable.

Runners over the 1m2f & 1m3f trips seem to be the sweet spots for the pair…

15 winners from 39 runners | 38% S/R | +£25.75 BFLSP – Win & Place 24/39 | 62% S/R

Moore Snr can get them ready for these mid-range trips and Moore Jnr can boot them home. The 62% win & place strike-rate is particularly eye-catching.

Those mini-angles give us something to tuck into. We have to be patience and wait for the right spots but patience pays in the long run.

For those of you with an abundant amount of patience and love an angle with a high strike rate then you should definitely consider the following…

R Moore/G Moore runners | SP Fav | Top 2 finish last time out

17 winners from 31 runners | 55% S/R | +£15.67 BFLSP – Win & Place 20/31 | 65% S/R

This little angle is firing pretty tidily above expectation and so far this year has produced form figures of 3181.

Sure the profits are admittedly a slow grind but hey, add it to a portfolio of methods/angles and it will tick along sweetly building up profits.

The Moore’s give you more when you know where to look…

Stats sourced from the excellent Proform Professional database

Proform Racing | The Professionals Form Database

 2014 Fifa World Cup

It ain’t no secret that I’m pretty average at punting on the football. In truth I very rarely dabble. But it’s the World Cup in 20 days time, I’m going to dabble! I dare say plenty of you will also be dipping your punting toes into the Brazilian waters as well.

I still try and attack any betting I do on football from a statistical viewpoint. It generally fails, I most certainly need help!

Or I at least need/want someone to do the stats work for me, I’m waaaayyy to busy with my head stuck in racing stats and analysis to also look at football from a similar angle. Plus I’m sure Mrs NTF would kill me, slowly and painfully, if I said I was too busy to go shopping, do the garden, plump some cushions, blah, blah, blah because I was statistically analyzing the Fifa World Cup!

So I’ve plumped for the Bet Trends World Cup Football Service. (Discount code below)

Then I realised it’s from the same team that brought you the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide.

So I get on the blower (for blower read I emailed someone!) and see if I can fix up a discount deal similar to the one I provided you guys for the Cheltenham book.

And I did!

If you want to grab their World Cup stats guide but with a £2 discount bunged on top then visit this page and enter the code NTFWC in the discount box.

Their guide is usually £15 but with the NTFWC code applied you can grab it for £13.

I’m a stats guy so even if I once again screw up my football punting I will have at least been able to enjoy the trends knowledge of someone who knows what they are doing!

For the record I have plumped for FRED (Brazil) and put my money down for him to be top scorer at the World Cup. Feel safe in the knowledge that he will draw a blank with the weight of my tenner resting upon his Brazilian shoulders!

Grab their guide here >>> http://www.weatherbysshop.co.uk/betting-services/other-sports/world-cup-football-service

…and pop NTFWC in the discount box.

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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