How to tackle three-year-old’s in open handicap company: Part II…

Which trainers DON’T excel with their three-year-old’s in all age handicaps?

Bell struggling to chime in open age handicaps with his youngsters?

So on Friday I told you the three trainers that excelled with their three-year-old’s in all age handicaps. Today, however, I’m tackling the opposite end of the spectrum and highlighting three trainers who struggle and seem to fire shots in the dark when it comes to the business of placing their youngsters in open handicap company.

So…

Which trainers should we be looking to avoid when it comes to three-year-old’s in all age handicaps?

Let’s begin with a classic winning trainer who has fired plenty of bullets at these races but has missed the bullseye a worrying amount of times…

3-Y-O Handicap Struggler #1: MICHAEL BELL

Bell may have the ability to train a classic winner or two but when it comes to the tricky task of placing a youngster in an all age handicap he has really be struggling lately…

M Bell – 3-Y-O Handicappers in all age handicaps

6 winners from 96 runners | 6% strike-rate | -£63.92 Betfair level stakes profit – Win & Place 30/96 | 31% strike-rate

(57% below expectation)

If we look at his record in handicaps in general we see he has an 11% strike-rate so there is certainly a drop-off when we consider the three-year-old group.

From my own perspective I would really want to see an improvement in his figures before getting my hard-earned down on a Bell three-year-old in an all age handicap.

 

3-Y-O Handicap Struggler #2: BRIAN ELLISON

Ellison could probably be classed as a bit of a ‘shrewdie’, a trainer who can plot up a horse, a trainer who can get one ready for a specific target. Whilst that may be the general case it certainly isn’t the case when it comes to this sub-set of runners…

B Ellison – 3-Y-O Handicappers in all age handicaps

1 winners from 41 runners | 2% strike-rate | -£36.67 Betfair level stakes profit – Win & Place 5/41 | 12% strike-rate

(77% below expectation)

Well below expectation and the win & place figures don’t do much to improve things.

If we look at his record in handicaps in general we see he has an 11% strike-rate so these types really drop off when it comes to strike-rates.

I personally find the Ellison approach a tricky one to fathom but at least these figures give a strong indication that we should avoid his youngsters in all age-handicaps.

If I have a spare week I might try and figure out Ellison’s entire approach to this racing game!

 

3-Y-O Handicap Struggler #3: WILLIAM KNIGHT

William Knight has steadily been establishing himself as a trainer of note for a few years now and his string has been increasing in ability, with Group winners now starting to appear in his boxes. However, when it comes to the ‘black art’ of three-year-old handicappers against their elders the figures suggest he needs to improve and we need to avoid…

W Knight – 3-Y-O Handicappers in all age handicaps

1 winners from 47 runners | 2% strike-rate | -£44.28 Betfair level stakes profit – Win & Place 12/47 | 26% strike-rate

(83% below expectation)

Well below expectation but in fairness the win and place side of things do bolster things a little.

These types may simply not be in his plans at the minute, and that is fair enough, but whatever the reason’s may be I would certainly want to see an improvement in the figures before having a personal involvement.

 

As mentioned in Part I of this post these types of races are not a large part of my approach at all, however, they do interest me greatly and they are an area I will be keeping an eye on very closely to see if I can spot further profitable areas as well as areas that are best avoided.

 

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

 

*Figures have been sourced from the excellent Proform Professional Database

 

Proform Racing | The Professionals Form Database

**For this particular report I have only considered Turf races run in the UK

 

 

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