How to navigate the twists and turns of the Roodee…

“All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them.”

That quote is straight from the horse’s mouth. The horse is question being the king sire of Chester’s May meeting; GALILEO.

If you replace ‘truths’ with ‘stats’ then you are half the way to my racing methodology. And Chester’s May meeting is a great meeting to attack from a stats perspective.

OK it was actually Galileo the Italian physicist, mathematician, astronomer & philosopher who I stole the quote from, not the horse! But “neigh, neigh, neigh” didn’t seem quite as impressive a quote to use!

Chester’s three day May meeting kicks into gear on Wednesday and from a personal perspective it is by far and away one of my favourite flat meets of the year.

I love the intricacies of the ‘dog track’, the tactics, the pace angles, the twists and turns, etc…

Sure there will be some hard luck stories but hey, that’s life, hard luck stories are part and parcel of being alive, suck it up, move on, get over it!! Before you put your money down you are fully aware your horse may get into trouble in-running and won’t get a run, that’s Chester.

On the more positive side the track’s unique nature does throw up some strong trends and pointers and it is a trio of those trends and pointers that I want to share with you here today.

Starting with…

When Aidan O’Brien is in town he really fancies smashing it…

No surprise on that score perhaps but his overall figures are well worth noting…

13 winners from 29 runners | 45% S/R | +£52.79 BFLSP – Win & Place 17/29 | 59% S/R

Doesn’t matter what way you shake those figures up they are a hefty set to go to war with and level stakes profits of +£52.79 certainly keep your pockets bulging.

He general sends a strong team over to the meeting, with the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Ruler Of The World strutting their stuff on the Roodee in recent seasons, as well as a few others with relatively tall reputations.

Here are a couple of O’Brien trends to zone in on…

  • He cleans up in small fields. His record in fields of 5 runners or less is 7/9 | 78% S/R | +£8.70 BFLSP
  • Take note when Ryan Moore is on-board. The Moore/O’Brien partnership is a rock solid 7/11 | 64% S/R | +£9.13 BFLSP
  • His first time out runners are worth noting. His runners that come here for their first start in 150+ days show figures of 7/12 | 58% S/R | +£43.83 BFLSP – Win & Place 9/12 | 75% S/R

 

The Galileo offspring love sweeping round the tight turns of Chester…

This angle is, in some way, related to the O’Brien dominance but it isn’t exclusive to the Ballydoyle master and is worth taking note of…

12 winners from 35 runners | 34% S/R | +£22.31 BFLSP – Win & Place 20/35 | 57% S/R

That win strike-rate of 34% is stunning and the 57% win & place strike-rate is just the shiny cherry on top.

Here are a couple of deeper pointers on the Galileo front…

  • 11 of the 12 Galileo winners came in Non-Handicap races. This filter tightens things up a fair bit with figures of 11/24 | 46% S/R | +£28.70 BFLSP – Win & Place 16/24 | 67% S/R
  • 10 of his winners were 3 Year Old’s. This tightens things up a bit more with figures of 10/21 | 48% S/R | +£27.95 BFLSP – Win & Place 14/21 | 67% S/R
  • 3-Y-O’s in Non-Handicaps over 12f or less is where the real sweet-spot sits. Pulling those three angles together gives us figures of 7/12 | 58% S/R | +£25.94 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/12 | 67% S/R

 

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2015 BDH Subscription Service

The Badly Drawn Horse Members Area is now starting to hot up and the next race for analysis purposes - the ultra competitive CHESTER CUP - is now available for full members.

This Chester meeting should also provide a couple of new members for the UTR (Under The Radar) Squad.

I have my eye on a number at this Chester meeting who could well join the squad very shortly, depending on how they run of course. They will join the members of the BDH Squad as I look to laser-target certain horses as we map our way through the flat season.

For those of you that are not aware the UTR Squad was first introduced on NTF (my jumps service) a couple of seasons back and was a resounding success. I look for runners that will have escaped the attention of most and highlight where I feel we can profit from them going forwards. It is a method that requires plenty of hard work and patience but the rewards are well worth the effort.

The main highlight for the NTF UTR Squad during the 2014/15 season is easy to pinpoint, it was without a doubt  JUST A PAR in the BET365 Gold Cup. There were others winners to keep that particular pot ticking along throughout the season but watching the Paul Nicholls trained chaser romp home up the Sandown finish at 14-1, after a couple of months with our fingers on the trigger waiting to pull, reminded me exactly why I do what I do.

Membership is still open for the full BDH service although I will be closing the doors shortly.

To grab your spot on the service please visit the following page…

 

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Ignore front-runners at your peril…

No sh!t sherlock Ben I hear you cry! But however obvious the front-runner angle may be they are still massively overlooked by the wider betting public.

These are the figures for front-runners in the past six season's during the month of May…

33 winners from 162 runners | 20% S/R | +£89.93 BFLSP – Win & Place 70/162 | 43% S/R

If we consider that hold-up runners have only won 12 more races (45) but from a pool of 700 runners (6.5% S/R) then you can maybe see the impact of these front-runners.

The expected winners for front-runners, based on market expectations, is 19. The expected winners for hold-up horses is 63. front-runners are over-performing by some way whilst the hold-up runners are firing some way below expectation.

If you can identify the pace-setters then they can be a rich source of Chester May meeting profits.

Here are a couple closer pointers to help ratchet up the profits further…

  • Stalls 2 or 3 are the ideal berths for front-runners. Stall 1 does OK for a front-runner (5/28 | 18% S/R) but the ideal starting positions are stalls 2 or 3. Combined they produced healthy figures of 15/47 | 32% S/R | +£43.57 BFLSP – Win & Place 23/47 | 49% S/R. Remember that is only if the horse went to lead from those stalls.
  • Front-runners over the minimum trip (5f) can be extremely difficult to catch. That makes perfect sense as they can just go flat out over the shortest trip and their opponents have the least amount of time to grab hold of them and overtake them. The actual figures are 10/29 | 34% S/R | +£48.30 BFLSP - Win & Place 20/29 | 69% S/R.

However obvious it may be the facts remain that you ignore those front-runners at your peril!!

 

Best of luck if you are getting involved in the glorious dog track that is Chester racecourse over the next three days.

May the speed be with you!!

 

Stats have been sourced from the excellent and highly recommended Proform Professional database

 

Ben (BDH)

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