How did that win? – Appleby on the Rowley Mile…

Image result for charlie appleby

Godolphin are a strange beast these days. Realistically they are nowhere near their glory days of the late 90’s/early-mid 00’s and personnel changes seem to unsettle the ship more often than is healthy. Despite that, however, their trainers are still able to fire in a healthy supply of winners season after season, whilst maybe not quite grabbing the major prizes they so desire. That doesn’t matter much to me though, as long as the winners keep flowing I can get stuck into their wider figures and unearth a tasty angle or two to stick in the portfolio.

I had the bones of this angle from the back end of last season, tightened it up a shade at the last Newmarket meeting (Craven meeting) and then slotted the final cog into place off the back of this weekends Guineas meeting…

How did that win?

Winner: WAY OF WISDOM (C Appleby)

Date: 07/05/17

Race: 4.10 Newmarket – Havana Gold Maiden Stakes

Angle: Charlie Appleby on the Rowley Mile

Charlie Appleby | Newmarket (Rowley) | Listed level & below | 0-6 career starts | No Headgear worn

Since 2013…

29/93 | 31% S/R | +£90.75 BFLSP – W&P 50/93  54% S/R

59% above expectation

Yearly breakdown…

2017 – 4/11 | 36% S/R | +11.33 BFLSP

2016 – 6/21 | 29% S/R | +21.75 BFLSP

2015 – 7/22 | 32% S/R | +7.42 BFLSP

2014 – 5/27 | 19% S/R | +12.38 BFLSP

2013 – 7/12 | 58% S/R | +37.87 BFLSP

Relatively simple on the filters front but they provide a chunky set of strike-rate and figures to go to war with.

Will this angle keep producing the profits? 

I’d be confident, yes. By eliminating the Group races we take out a fair few losers (Appleby is only 2/28 in Group races on the Rowley Mile) and backs up my initial thoughts that Godolphin just don’t quite have those top class horses to go to war with at the minute. That’s not Appleby’s fault though and he can definitely do the job on the Rowley Mile in the right grades, as highlighted by his 4/11 record on this angle already this season.

Appleby is a fine trainer and when he has a lightly raced and straightforward runner (no headgear suggests no major quirks with the horse) at Listed level or below on the Rowley Mile I plan on being financially involved.

This latest angle has been added to the ‘How did that win’ page.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. Doors to BDH 2017 are now OPEN!

But they won’t be open for long. I’ve had a fantastic pick-up from current NTF members (not all of them are flat fans so I only see some of them throughout the winter) and I never like to keep the doors open too long as I want to keep as much time free for race analysis as is physically possible.

You can secure a season ticket to the BDH Members Area for £97 on the link below…

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Next race analysis will be the Chester Cup this Wednesday (10th May)...

1 Comment

  • Bob

    Reply Reply May 8, 2017

    Charlie also has a wonderful strike rate with horses having their first start in Aussie.

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