Glorious Goodwood 2014: What did we learn from the five days?

Kingman stamps his class on the Sussex Stakes.

Five valuable pointers to take from this years Glorious Goodwood festival

Now the dust has begun to settle on the 2014 Glorious Goodwood Festival it makes sense to take a look back at the action with a fresh eye to unearth those valuable pointers that will aid us in the future.

Here are my five ‘goodies’ to take from this years festival…

 

MUTHMIR still remains a horse of extreme potential…

Sure the almighty gamble went astray, wads and wads of punts were lost, but he deserves more credit than he is getting for his 2L fifth.

He was joint top of the figures I sent to my subscribers but as I said in my race day report I simply had to overlook him, he just didn’t have the draw, he was not on the side of the draw where the majority of the pace was berthed. It’s hard to win if you’re on the wrong side, even more so in a race like the Stewards Cup.

Connections were very bullish before the race, unusually bullish for trainer William Haggas I would say, and they had every right to be after his thumping win in the SkyBet Dash at York the previous week. They think he’s a Group horse in the making and I would tend to agree. However, he would need to be a Group horse of the very highest order to have won from that draw on Saturday. As such the fifth place finish was extremely pleasing, connections should NOT be disappointed.

I must admit the weight of money on the horse did surprise me. Clearly most people had not factored in where the pace was coming from and just kept piling in. If you did drop your dough on the horse don’t be put off, don’t let it cloud your future judgement of him, he should still make into a pattern performer, you will most likely get your money back with interest in the near future.

He was a definitely a Badly Drawn Horse on Saturday!

For his next assignment I would personally like to see a different jockey in the saddle. Nothing against Dane O’Neill and he certainly didn’t give him a poor ride on Saturday, far from it, but this horse is going to be going after some tasty pots from here on in and O’Neill wouldn’t have the best record in valuable contests…

Dane O’Neill record in races worth 30k+ to winner

4/127 | 3% S/R | -£67.73 BFLSP – 47% below expectation

I’m not sure I would let it put me off but I would certainly prefer someone with a better strike-rate and more victories to their name in valuable contests when Muthmir guns for his next target.

…and speaking of jockeys…

 

William Buick is really starting to master the twists and turns of Goodwood…

John Gosden’s main jockey ended the week as top jockey and he didn’t have nearly as many rides as the usual suspects of Moore & Hughes either…

Buick’s 2014 Glorious Goodwood record

5/16 | 31% strike-rate | +£28.22 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/16 | 50% strike-rate

Those figures included two victories at Group level, including the Group 1 victory of SULTANINA in the Nassau Stakes.

Richard Hughes better watch his back because Buick is really starting to look like a master of the Goodwood Roller-Coaster.

It’s also worth noting the performance of Joe Fanning, especially in handicaps…

4/15 | 27% strike-rate | +36.31 BFLSP – Win & Place 9/15 | 60% strike-rate

Fanning is in outstanding form at present and he continued that at the Glorious Goodwood meeting. Those handicap figures are nothing if not impressive.

 

On the trainer front…

Richard Fahey drew a great big stinking blank…

…despite sending plenty of ammo down for the meeting.

Here are his figures for the week…

0/18 | 0% strike-rate | -£18.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 2/18 | 11% strike-rate

In fairness it’s no real surprise, his runners have been running averagely at Goodwood for some time now.

This is his overall record at the track since 2010…

6/135 | 4% strike-rate | -£41.56 BFLSP – Win & Place 21/135 | 16% strike-rate – 41% below expectation

It’s definitely something to keep in mind going forward.

 

From a pace perspective…

If you could have isolated the front-runners over 9f trips or shorter you would have done OK for yourself…

Over 9f or shorter front-runners produced the following figures…

7/28 | 25% strike-rate | +£64.51 BFLSP

…and those are figures not to be sniffed at!

It’s a tricky track and not every horse will handle it, even more so if a decent beast sets off out front and you have to chase it down.

This tactic paid handsomely for some and certainly paid handsomely for any shrewd punters that were able to take advantage of the angle.

It is something I will most certainly be keeping a look out for at future Glorious Goodwood’s.

 

…and finally…

IVAWOOD is potentially a fair few streets ahead of his fellow Two-Year-Olds…

Richard Hannon’s youngster is a strapping individual, unbeaten in three starts and with two Group 2’s on his CV already. He added the second of those Group 2’s with an thumping victory in the Richmond Stakes last week.

He was a ret-hot fav for the race and won in the manner a red-hot fav should.

He is currently favourite for next year’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but I guess the worry is that he is a horse for the here and now. He is such a physically imposing beast but will he train on and be as dominating as a Three-Year-Old?

Is he simply miles ahead of his opposition at present and will they start closing the gap on him as they progress and he stands still?

I hope not. I hope he has enough scope to improve again as a Three-Year-Old. I hope he continues in a similar fashion as to what we have already seen.

It seems unlikely they will push him past the 6 furlong mark this term although it would certainly be interesting to see him tackle something over 7 furlongs before the season is out.

From a Dosage perspective he sits well for the 2000 Guineas. Not 100% bang on the mark but near enough to give him a pass for the race.

He rates as an extremely exciting prospect for the rest of the season and, hopefully, for 2015.

 

Let me know what you thought of Glorious Goodwood 2014 by dropping a comment in the box below.

Which horse impressed you the most?

Which runners disappointed and failed to deliver on the downs?

What are your lasting impressions of the week?

 

*Figures have been sourced from the excellent Proform Professional Database

Proform Racing | The Professionals Form Database

Ben (BDH)

 

4 Comments

  • Murray Macleod

    Reply Reply August 4, 2014

    My overwhelming impression, same as last year, is that you simply must back every Mark Johnston handicap runner, no matter how unlikely it may seem beforehand that it will win.

    • Ben

      Reply Reply August 5, 2014

      Hi Murray

      They would certainly have paid handsomely last week –

      4/18 | 22% S/R | +£33.61 BFLSP – 8 others (EIGHT!) placed

      I imagine he targets this meeting from some way out…

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  • Ian Murray

    Reply Reply August 4, 2014

    Hi Ben

    Started slowly for me and included a mistake in my not following you in on Cavalryman – however I escaped serious damage with the likes of Extremity, Snow Sky, Sultanina, Take Cover, Intrinsic and a few successes outside of Goodwood. Good selections Ben and enormously enjoyable. Most happiest with my bet on Take Cover as using Proform I discovered that it was the most likely horse given ground conditions and yet was best value – just not glamorous perhaps? Most puzzling bit of information was surely the fact that Captain Cat did not compete for an 80k prize owing to being marooned in transit to the racecourse – victim of a breakdown of the horsebox! You might have thought they would have arranged a contingency plan or am I just being naive.

    • Ben

      Reply Reply August 5, 2014

      Good stuff Ian

      Didn’t actually know that was the reason for Captain Cat’s N/R. I guess it depends on how many horse boxes they had out and about, maybe they were at full capacity anyway? Don’t know to be fair, I’m guessing.

      Your probably correct with Take Cover, un-glamorous=value price. Never a bad thing 🙂

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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