Galileo (Galileo), Galileo (Galileo), Galileo Chestero Magnifico!!

“You cannot teach a man anything, you can only help him find it within himself.”

Galileo once said the above quote (the Italian physicist, mathematician, astronomer, philosopher… not the horse!) but I’ll ignore him and will attempt to teach you something about Chester’s May meeting today and hopefully you will find it within yourself to believe me!!

Chester’s three day May meeting kicks into gear today and from a personal perspective it is by far and away one of my favourite flat meets of the year.

I love the intricacies of the ‘dog track’, the tactics, the pace angles, etc…

Sure there will be some hard luck stories but hey, that’s life, hard luck stories are part and parcel of being alive, suck it up, move on, get over it!!

Before you put your money down you are fully aware your horse may get into trouble in-running and won’t get a run, that’s Chester.

On the more positive side the tracks unique nature does throw up some strong trends and pointers and it is a trio of those trends and pointers that I want to share with you here today.

Starting with…

When Aidan O’Brien makes the trip over he really means business…

No surprise on that score perhaps but his overall figures are well worth noting –

13 winners from 30 runners | 43% S/R | +£50.27 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/30 | 60% S/R

Doesn’t matter what way you shake those figures up they are a hefty set to go to war with.

He general sends a strong team over to the meeting, indeed last years raiding party included the Epsom Derby winner RULER OF THE WORLD who strutted his stuff in the Group 3 Chester Vase.

Here are a couple of O’Brien pointers…

  • He cleans up in small fields. His record in fields of 5 runners or less is 7/9 | 78% S/R | +£8.70 BFLSP
  • Take note when Ryan Moore is on-board. The Moore/O’Brien partnership is 6/9 | 67% S/R | +£6.38 BFLSP
  • His first time out runners are worth noting. His runners that come here for their first start in 150+ days show figures of 7/12 | 58% S/R | +£42.76 BFLSP – Win & Place 10/12 | 83% S/R

 

The Galileo offspring seems to relish the tight turns of Chester…

This angle is, in some way, related to the O’Brien dominance but it isn’t exclusive to the Ballydoyle master and is worth noting –

8 winners from 28 runners | 29% S/R | +£13.04 BFLSP – Win & Place 14/28 | 50% S/R

The win strike-rate is decent enough but the fact 50% of his progeny have reached the places at Chester’s may meeting is certainly something worth noting.

Here are a couple of deeper pointers on the Galileo front…

  • The Galileo winners all came in Non-Handicap races. This filter tightens things up a fair bit with figures of 8/20 | 40% S/R | +£21.04 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/20 | 60% S/R
  • All his winners were 3 Year Old’s. This tightens things up even further with figures of 8/18 | 44% S/R | +£23.04 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/18 | 67% S/R
  • 3-Y-O’s in Non-Handicaps are the real sweet-spot. Pulling the two angle above together gives us figures of 8/16 | 50% S/R | +£25.04 BFLSP – Win & Place 10/16 | 63% S/R

 

Ignore front-runners at your peril…

No sh!t sherlock Ben I hear you cry! But however obvious the front-runner angle may be they are still massively overlooked by the wider betting public.

These are the figures for front-runners at the past six Chester Festivals…

31 winners from 153 runners | 20% S/R | +114.61 BFLSP – Win & Place 66/153 | 43% S/R

If we consider that hold-up runners have only won 15 more races (46) but from a pool of 662 runners (7% S/R) then you can maybe see impact of these front-runners.

The expected winners for front-runners, based on market expectations, is 18. The expected winners for hold-up horses is 59.

If you can identify the pace-setters then they can be a rich source of Chester May meeting profits.

Here are a couple closer pointers to help ratchet up the profits further…

  • Stalls 2 or 3 are the ideal berths for front-runners. Stall 1 does OK for a front-runner (5/29 | 17% S/R) but the ideal starting positions are stalls 2 or 3. Combined they produced healthy figures of 14/40 | 35% S/R | +£48.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 23/40 | 58% S/R. Remember that is only if the horse went to lead from those stalls.
  • When the ground is good or better the Front-Runners really make their speed pay. Good or better ground gives front-running figures of 24/108 | 22% S/R | +£131.15 BFLSP – Win & Place 51/108 | 47% S/R. Good to Soft or worse ground returns figures of 7/45 | 16% S/R | -£16.53 BFLSP | Win & Place 15/45 | 33% S/R. You often hear pundits tell you that it is hard to make up ground when there is cut in the ground. These figures actually suggest it is harder for the front-runners to make their speed pay when there is cut in the ground.

Ignore those front-runners at your peril!!

Best of luck if you are getting involved in the glorious dog track that is Chester racecourse over the next three days. May the speed be with you!!

Stats have been sourced from the excellent and highly recommended Proform Professional database

Proform Racing | The Professionals Form Database

 

BDH Subscription service 2014

The Badly Drawn Horse members Area is now starting to warm up and this Chester meeting should provide a few new members for the UTR (Under The Radar) Squad.

I added the first member to the squad this weekend and I already have my eye on a number at this Chester meeting who could well join the squad very shortly, depending on how they run of course.

For those of you that are not aware the UTR Squad was first introduced on NTF last season and was a resounding success. I look for runners that will have escaped the attention of most and highlight where I feel we can profit from them going forwards. It is a method that requires plenty of hard work and patience but the rewards are well worth the effort.

The main highlight for the NTF UTR Squad is easy to pinpoint, it was without a doubt  MOUNTAINOUS in the Welsh National. There were plenty of others winners to keep that particular pot ticking along throughout the season as well but watching the Richard Lee chaser battle home at BFSP 25.00 reminded me exactly why I do what I do.

Membership is still open for the full BDH service although I will be shutting up shop shortly.

To grab your spot on the service please visit the following page…

 

I look forward to seeing plenty of you in the BDH Members Area.

Ben (BDH)

 

4 Comments

  • Josh W

    Reply Reply May 7, 2014

    Superb as ever. I wasnt going to back Terrific at 5/2,but have changed that now given the above! Ticks all the Galileo boxes, and AOB.

    • Ben

      Reply Reply May 7, 2014

      Cheers Josh

      Best of luck today

      Ben (BDH)

  • Craig

    Reply Reply May 8, 2014

    Orchestra wins: Tremendous result for the Galileo/O’Brien/Moore combo! Just goes to show yet again, that there is gold in them thar NTF/BDH stats! 😀

    • Ben

      Reply Reply May 8, 2014

      Cheers Craig

      Safe to say ORCHESTRA was a prime fit on the stats 😀

      Ben (BDH)

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