Derby pointer for the St Leger: Gosden planning yet another Leger raid?

Does Gosden have a live Leger contender?

Did you know that the St Leger is one of the strongest Dosage races on the flat calendar?

That, perhaps, is no surprise.

It is after all a stamina sapping 1m 6.5f in distance and if you don’t have the correct credentials in your pedigree you are likely to wilt somewhere down the lung bursting Doncaster straight.

The Epsom Derby is also a particularly strong race on the Dosage front and the aftermath of Saturday’s race was consumed by talk of the new ‘wonder horse’ on the scene, Aidan O’Brien’s AUSTRALIA. He was the hype horse of the race and he duly delivered (he didn’t fulfill the hype to my eyes but he delivered in the sense that he won).

Personally I try and block out the hype and instead keep my radar tuned for any tasty nuggets from connections with regards to future targets. If a horse is being aimed at a race from some way out you can be pretty confident it will be tuned to the minute come said race.

During the post-race debriefing interviews my radar did indeed start to furiously twitch and twerk, thanks mainly to the master trainer John Gosden.

His ROMSDAL had finished a credible third in the Derby, fully justifying connections decision to stump up the £75000 needed to supplement the horse for the race. The Halling colt never really looked like threatening the top two in the latter stages of the race but he did stay on well in the final furlong to pull a comfortable four lengths clear of the fourth horse.

Gosden commented after the race that “He is very much a St Leger type and won´t go for the Irish Derby. He stayed on well and he has real stamina. It’s likely he goes to the Ladbrokes St Leger”.

A comment like that sent me straight off to my own notes. I know from my own in-depth study that you really need to have the correct Dosage credentials for the Leger or there is little point in turning up.

So does ROMSDAL have the correct credentials or are they wasting their time?

Here are my Dosage notes for the final classic of the season…

DP

15/15 had 18 points or more in their DP
11/15 had 28 points or more in their DP

DI

14/15 had a DI of 1.48 or below
12/15 had a DI of 1.07 or below
0/15 had a DI below 0.49

CD

13/15 had a CD of 0.26 or below
12/15 had a CD of 0.20 or below
0/15 had a CD below -0.31

DPA (14/15) – DQ – 8 / 20+ – 5 / PATB – 1

With those figures at my disposal I went and checked on the Dosage figures of ROMSDAL

ROMSDAL Dosage Figures – 3-1-9-6-1 (DQ) | 20 | 0.74 | -0.05

As you can see he is a snug fit on the Dosage parameters I outlined above.

He is currently a 5-1 shot for the St Leger. That is not a price I would personally dive in on, the race is a long way away and plenty can happen between now and then.

My analysis wasn’t, however, to look for an ante-post bet but simply to start the process of building up a picture in my mind of the possible/probably Leger contenders.

What we have in the shape of ROMSDAL is…

  • A horse who has pretty near perfect Dosage credentials for the race
  • Is clearly being aimed at the race by his powerful connections
  • Is trained by a trainer who has won three of the past seven St Leger’s
  • Ran an excellent third behind two ‘potentially’ high class horses in the Derby whilst at the same time pulling clear of the remainder

That all goes in my own personal notes and will help me come to a decision closer to race time, a decision that will not only benefit myself but also the members of the full BDH Subscription service.

I like what I have seen so far from ROMSDAL, I like how connections have a long term plan for him and I like how he fits snuggly on the Dosage side of things.

Providing all goes well for the rest of the season (and providing he scores well on the extended BDH trends closer to race day) I would suspect ROMSDAL to be high on my list as a potential St Leger winner.

Ben (BDH)

 

 

2 Comments

  • Josh W

    Reply Reply June 9, 2014

    Good stuff –
    Derby/Australia – now, like you I believe, jumping is my first passion, but there is something quite special about watching a high class horse cruise through a race and win well, from another very good horse. The breeding made it a great story – and at least we can now look out for his kids in the future! You would like to think that is strong form and it will be interesting what they do with him now. Great winner of the oaks as well, another high class performance and great for the jockey to win first G1.

    • Ben

      Reply Reply June 10, 2014

      Hi Josh

      Yes Gosden horse was a fantastic winner of the Oaks, perfectly ridden by Paul Hanagan. Great to see him land a classic.

      Cheers

      Ben (BDH)

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