BDH Trends Analysis: Scarborough Stakes…

B Fifty Two to bomb home in the Scarborough Stakes?

Does Charlie have the fire-power for the Scarborugh Stakes?

Today brings the start of Doncaster’s Ladbrokes St. Leger Festival. A four day meeting culminating in the lung bursting St. Leger itself, the final Classic of the season.

The festival gets off to a relatively low-key start today and it generally isn’t a day I tend to get too involved in. However, there is one race that catches my eye, particularly from a profiling/trends perspective, and that’s the Listed SCARBOROUGH STAKES at 3.00.

The Scarborough Stakes is a Listed contest run over Doncaster’s flying five furlongs and was won two years ago by the beast that is Sole Power. Generally it falls to a sprinter slightly further down the chain than the Irish superstar but you still need a speedster who can run to an RPR rating of around 110.

It isn’t a race I currently cover on my full BDH service but I may consider pulling it into the schedule for next season.

Today’s renewal looks a particularly intriguing renewal and here are the trends I used to attack this years entrants…

1              12/13 were aged 4 – 6

2              12/13 recorded a top 3 finish on 1 of their last 3 runs

3              11/13 had 4+ career victories

4              12/13 were rated 101+

5              11/13 had previously won at 5f

6              12/13 had 4+ starts in current season

7              11/13 Finished in the top 6 LTO

8              10/13 ran within the past 24 days

9              11/13 had between 13 & 28 previous career starts

10           10/13 had at least placed at Group level previously

11           10/13 had previously won at 6f

Applying those trends to the 11 runners due to go to post gave me…

scarborough stakes I’ll construct a short-list from the top group there, giving me five to concentrate on…

B FIFTY TWO

RECKLESS ABANDON

KINSGATE NATIVE

GLADIATRIX

STEPS

I’m instantly drawn to Charlie Hills B FIFTY TWO at the top of the figures. He rolls up with full marks on the trends and that makes him hard for me to ignore.

This will only be his third start for Charlie Hills and the young trainer certainly seems to have found a bit of improvement in the horse with the 5-Y-O firing in a career best effort last time out. The horse has come up short at this level in the past but he’s worth a dart under his new trainer and at the prices on offer. It may be that he finds a couple just too good for him here but I’m happy to take the risk.

Of the others on the short-list I really can’t have GLADIATRIX. She’s a tough mare but I can’t have her on these terms and connections would probably be better finding a handicap for her next month, as she has a superb 1113 record in October.

RECKLESS ABANDON, KINSGATE NATIVE and STEPS can all be given some sort of chance so lets dig a bit deeper into those three.

RECKLESS ABANDON brings with him a sub-fertile set of gonads and not half bad race CV. He showed plenty of dash on his return from stud at Newmarket last time out and with Group 1 and Group 2 winning form under his belt it isn’t hard to see him landing this. Adam Kirby back in the plate is an added bonus (form of 1135 on the horse) and the horse may ultimately prove just too good in this company.

KINGSGATE NATIVE has been there, done it and got the t-shirt (including the ‘fired blanks at stud’ t-shirt) and continues to run to a solid level. The worry would be that he has never won after October in 11 tries and he is on a 12 race losing streak. I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see him land this but I just can’t have him today.

STEPS is a horse BDH readers will know well from the last campaign. His best chance today may come from the fact he will be able to hook onto the back of a rapid pace up front and come with his usual late rattle. He has winning Doncaster form, looks best over 5f, is 2 from 2 in Listed company, has won 6 of his 8 races in fields of this size and his yard won this contest last year. The main worry would be the drying ground as he does look best on Good or softer. As it is (Good) he should be fine.

Conclusion

I can’t pass over B FIFTY TWO and I’ll be playing him each-way here. I’ll look to cover him with RECKLESS ABANDON and/or STEPS. At 2-1 I wasn’t overly keen on RA but he is drifting as I write so I’ll keep a watchful eye on him.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. For all you National Hunt fans itching to get stuck into the ‘proper’ racing, NTF is about to engage first gear…

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