Ayr angles…

Image result for ayr racecourse

Ayr we go…

After the success/response to last weeks Ponte Pointers’ post I’ve decided to dip my toes back into the ‘through the card’ waters and tackle Monday’s Ayr meeting from a similar perspective.

A number of you expressed a desire for more of the same going forward and when a couple of readers said they were heading to Ayr for a jolly and could I maybe tackle the card in a similar fashion to how I got stuck into the recent Ponte card I thought ‘yeah, good idea, lets keep this thing rolling’!

This time around I won’t personally be at the track (I’ve already been back to Scotland twice this year, three times before the end of July would be pushing it!!) but like Pontefract it is a track I know well and I do have a few Ayr Angles saved on the databases to give me a ‘way in’ for some of the races.

Interestingly the seven race card has a mammoth SIX all age handicaps and they are exactly the type of races I love getting stuck into on the flat. No maiden races, 3yo only handicaps or 2yo Nursery Handicaps in sight, cracking stuff.

Doesn’t mean it’s going to be any easier finding the winners but at least it’s races I’m comfortable playing in on a day to day basis.

I’ll start with the Ayr angles I’ve got saved on the databases…

Ayr mini-angles…

I’ve actually a few mini-angles squirreled away for Ayr, none I follow religiously, more angles to help me as a ‘way in’, but for this post I’m more than happy to rely on them, providing no glaringly obvious negatives rear their ugly heads for any of the qualifiers.

The following three Ayr angles that I have stored (that concentrate on Ayr during the June-July-August period only) have qualifiers on Monday…

Angle 1: Keith Dalgleish | Class 3, 4, 5 | Aged 2yo – 5yo | 1-6 starts in season | DSLR 6-25

Since 2014 = 18/55 | 33% S/R | +97.31 BFLSP – W&P 24/55 | 44% S/R

100% above expectation

Dalgleish has really started firing in the winners at Ayr in recent times and his summer runners under the above conditions really bring home the bacon.

He has one qualifier on the angle on Monday…

2.30 – LOMU

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Angle 2: M Dods | 5f – 1m | Not stepping up in trip | Class move same or 1 up/1 down

Since 2014 = 11/54 | 20% S/R | +£23.96 BFLSP – W&P 29/54 | 54% S/R

19% above expectation

Dods sends a pretty hefty team to the west coast track on Monday (8 runners) although following him blind at Ayr can leave you out of pocket during the peak summer months.

Profit can be found when specializing, however, and he has two qualifiers on the above angle on Monday…

2.00 – GRIMEFORD LANE

3.00 – DESPERADOS DESTINY

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Angle 3: R Carr | JP Sullivan riding | 4-7 starts in season | Class move same or 1 up/1 down | Distance move same or down no more than 1f/up no more than 1.5f

Since 2014 = 14/39 | 36% | +71.75 BFLSP – W&P 22/39 | 56% S/R

131% above expectation

Carr has had a cracking season so far and Ayr has been a solid hunting spot for her in recent years, especially under the above conditions.

She has two qualifiers on the angle on Monday…

3.00 – DANISH DUKE

4.00 – ELLAAL

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So that’s a couple of ways in to try and turn a profit from the card but let’s look at each individual race now…

2.00 – Novice Auction Stakes

A race I wouldn’t normally be looking at in truth so thankfully there is a mini-angle qualifier in this (GRIMEFORD LANE) albeit one that needs to improve plenty from his first two starts and one that may be looking for a handicap mark as well, given this is his third run. He’s available at double figures though so an E/W tickle on him is probably the best way to go with him. Dods actually has a couple others in this and his FRENCH FLYER won at the track on his only previous start 23 days ago and rightly heads the market here. That form, however, only looks OK so far so he may be susceptible to something like POETS PRICE from the Johnston yard, who has finished runner up on his two starts to date, albeit the form of his races only looks average at best as well.

A hard race to have a strong opinion on but GRIMEFORD LORD gives a decent price to shoot for at least and does fit that Dods angle.

If handicaps are the plan for him on his next start then it’s worth noting that Dods is only 3/60 with his Handicap debutants who only have three previous starts in the bank.

2.30 – 7f Handicap

Only five runners here and LOMU is the only Dalgleish qualifier of the day on his mini-angle. He’s the favourite for this and that’s no surprise given that he’s won 3 of his 4 starts to date, including a CD victory last time out and his only defeat came when making a visit to the A/W. He takes on his elders for the first time here so gets the 3yo allowance and there’s every chance this improving and unexposed younger will take all the beating here. Also worth noting that Dalgleish has a 23% S/R with his last time out winners (37/162) and there has already been a winner to come out of the race Lomu won 23 days ago. He’s short at the head of the market but he looks the most likely winner.

3.00 – 6f Handicap

A race that actually holds plenty of ‘Handicap Sleeper’ types as well as two mini-angle qualifiers (DANISH DUKE – R Carr & DESPERADOS DESTINY – M Dods).

DANDYLEEKIE has already been highlighted by me to my full BDH Members as he is a horse that is on the members Handicap Sleepers list. This is what I wrote about him in the members area…

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The conditions I identified for DANDYLEEKIE were…

OR 79 or less – YES (OR 72)

Good or softer – YES (Currently Good)

C4 or below – Yes (C5)

Straight track – YES (Straight track)

Form when all conditions met = 1132133 (3/7) ALL 3 career wins

Conditions met here? YES

Weather watch – Cloudy but dry day forecast

Other Notes – 2 of 3 wins have come over 6f

First time he’s been a qualifier for us and given that he’s never been out of the 3 in 7 starts when faced with these conditions I’m more than happy to play him at the double figure odds on offer.

Conclusion – DANDYLEEKIE, E/W Bet

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DANISH DUKE is on my wider Handicap Sleepers list so the fact he also qualifies on the Ruth Carr mini angle certainly has my radar twitching. He’s a previous CD winner who is now 1lb below his last and highest winning mark and when racing under the following conditions – OR 68 & below, C5 or C6, James Sullivan riding, DSLR 20 or less, June – Nov – he has a form line of 013111 (all 4 career wins). Given those conditions are met here I’d also want him on side.

The Dods qualifier, DESPERADOS DESTINY, is a 3yo with only 5 starts on his CV and one A/W win to his name. On that score he’s difficult to assess, however, Dods does have a decent record with his 3yo’s in all age handicaps during the months of June & July – 14/47 | 30% S/R to be precise – so on that score Desperados is of some interest albeit 13 of the 14 winners mentioned in the Dods 3yo handicappers stat started at 4-1 or less and this one is unlikely to be anywhere near that price.

The other one that also caught my eye, from my wider Handicap Sleepers list, was the Keith Dalgleish trained CIRCUITOUS. He is a dual CD winner (from 4 starts) with an overall Ayr record of 3 wins & 2 places from 10 starts. He was given an odd ride last time out over 1m (blasted away early doors and was never going to stay) but with Tom Eaves back on top (3/19 on him) and back down to 6f he is of a certain level of interest.

I’d probably be looking to stick with Dandyleekie & Danish Duke here although Circuitous is also very much on my radar..

3.30 – 1m2f Handicap

Another race that contains a BDH Members Handicap Sleeper, this time it’s GERRY THE GLOVER that comes under the microscope.

This is what I wrote to BDH members…

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The conditions I identified for GERRY THE GLOVER were…

OR 84 or below – YES (OR 77)

May-June-July – YES (July)

C3 level or below – YES (C5 level)

Form when all conditions met = 211163 (All 3 career wins)

Conditions met here? YES

Good or softer possibly ideal ground

Weather watch – Cloudy but dry day forecast

Other Notes – N/A

He’s been knocking on the door in recent starts (<1L 3rd & Head 2nd last 2 starts) and this step back to Class 5 level for the first time since his maiden win (22 starts ago) could be just the ticket to get him back to winning ways.

Conclusion – GERRY THE GLOVER, Straight WIN Bet

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LUCENT DREAM is the clear danger and is also officially 3lbs ahead of the handicapper at present and looks like one of those that was handicapped on the A/W before moving back to turf with a favourable mark to play with. He’s pretty short for this though so I’d rather be looking to something like RUBIS for a covering bet. She clearly didn’t stay 1m4f last time out will appreciate this return to 1m2f, a CD she was successful over 2 starts ago and Adam McNamara’s 3lb claim takes her back down to the same mark of OR 58.

4.00 – 1m Handicap

Ruth Carr has a mini-angle qualifier here in the form of ELLAAL, who is also a horse that appears on my wider Handicap Sleepers list and is of obvious interest to me. He’s a long in the tooth hardened handicapper with 11 wins from 83 starts (13% S/R) and if you look at him under the following conditions – OR 72 & below, DSLR 15 or less, C5 or below, 11 or less runners – you improve his figures to 8/29 (28% S/R) with a win & place record of 18/29 | 62% S/R. Those conditions are met here, he fits the Carr angle and there’s a bit of juice in his price, he’s the kind I like to have on my side.

INGLEBY ANGEL is the other one in this field that’s is highlighted to me by my expansive Handicap Sleeper list. He’s another hardened handicapper, with 65 starts on his CV, and although he’s on a bit of a losing run at present (17 runs and counting) he did fire in an eye-catching run last time out at Beverley (2nd) and gave his biggest hint for some time he’s ready to get back to winning ways. On a flat track from an OR of 90 or below and returning within 60 days he is 9/22 (41% S/R) W&P 12/22 (55% S/R), those conditions are met here and if he can build on his last start over a CD he’s won over previously then he should go close.

4.30 – 1m Handicap (Class 2)

The big race of the day at Ayr and only the one horse being flagged up to me and that’s MOONLIGHNAVIGATOR for John Quinn. He runs here off OR 84, a mark that is 1lb below his highest winning mark and only 1lb above his last winning mark. His form at the track is a rather fetching 122261, which includes a win at the trip and under the following conditions – OR 85 or less, Flat track, Field of 13 or less, 7f-1m trips – he has form figures of 111632221, conditions that are met in this race. Whether he is still up to a race of this nature is debatable but at around 25/1 I’m willing to pay to find out.

Roger Varian looks likely to have the fav here in the shape of ZABEEL PRINCE and there is no doubt his raiders here need plenty respect as the 8 times he’s made the long haul trip to the track have returned him form figures of 31284111. Zabeel Prince makes his handicap debut here and Varian has a 22% S/R with his handicap debutants although that figure is 9% below expectation. The form of his two starts so far would only be average at best and although it would be no surprise to see him win I don’t personally want to be lumping on him here. There’s not quite enough for me to go on with him and although he’s completely unexposed he’s also very inexperienced and horses with 0-2 previous starts in Class 2 open age Handicaps are only 4/73 (5% S/R) in the last 5 years.

Of the others KINGS PAVILION is of a certain level of interest. I’m not sure conditions are bang ideal for him but he’s back on his last/highest winning mark of OR 88 and comes in off a near career best effort last time out when second in the Carlisle Bell. Mulrennan back in the saddle is also a positive (1st & 3rd on 2 previous rides on horse).

It’s a decent contest for a Monday at Ayr and there are a few potential improvers/lighter raced sorts than the two I’m pinning my hopes on but both should be winning soon and hopefully, for one of them, it will be today.

5.00 – 1m5.5f Apprentice Handicap

A staying Apprentice Handicap, where I also have no Handicap Sleepers flagging up, would not be a race I’d normal take a look at, but I’d feel incomplete should I not cover the entire card so let’s look for a way in…

…which is easier said than done!!

…I’m fighting the urge to jack this race in and go and play a game of online poker here…

…come on Ben, stay with it…

OK…

BELL OF THE BALL was runner up in this off the same mark last year and she traveled brilliantly until the closing stages where she just couldn’t quicken up. That was on Soft ground though and she seems best on better ground, which she should get here. She won last month over hurdles at Downpatrick so comes here in fine fettle and there’s a bit of value in her price in what looks an open race.

Mark Prescott sends the completely unexposed EASY WIND on the 360 mile trip to Ayr and he looks likely to start fav. It’s looks a typical Prescott plot with the 3yo having had 3 down the field spins in 7f maidens to achieve a handicap mark before entering a handicap over a trip way in excessive of anything it’s faced previously. Prescott’s record in open aged handicaps in the July-Sept period with 3yo’s is 50/127 | 39% S/R so it would be no surprise should this one boost those figures although I’m buggered if I’m taking 2-1 about a horse that’s shown precious little (by design admittedly) prior to this. Could win, nay probably will win, but at the price I’m happy to swerve.

Jeez!

Reckon that was harder than the Ponte card last week!!

What you need to remember for this coverage is that in the lower grade handicaps (or handicaps where I can’t cover them using trends), and these handicaps would be what I class as lower grade handicaps, I almost exclusive play Handicap Sleepers. Like all betting it’s a long term view and you do have to sit and suffer sometimes but patience will be rewarded if I stick to my guns and keep up my behind the scenes work-rate and research.

Hopefully you find plenty of useful nuggets in this post and maybe, just maybe, one the bigger priced ones will land themselves in the winners enclosure…

Ben (BDH)

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5 Comments

  • Pete

    Reply Reply July 17, 2017

    Great read again Ben, I’ll be shouting and getting financially involved
    with you again, good luck. Cheers Pete

    • Ben

      Reply Reply July 17, 2017

      Cheers Pete

      Tricky day today and with most winners being favs, that generally means a poor day for me.

      Still the finale to come yet so hopefully something from there but overall it’s been a favorites day 🙁

      Ben (BDH)

  • Pam Quarton

    Reply Reply July 17, 2017

    Thoroughly enjoyed reading your comments and as an Octogenarian, from Newmarket, Found it reall absorbing to read. Not sure at this point in time of becoming really financially involved but on a couple, Defo! Cheers

    • Ben

      Reply Reply July 17, 2017

      Many thanks and glad you found it an absorbing read 🙂

      A favourites day so far (1 race to go at time of writing) so I’ve had to sit and suffer a bit but that’s racing…

      Best regards – Ben (BDH)

  • Ben

    Reply Reply July 17, 2017

    Winners at 2/1, 5/4, 7/4, 9/4 & 6/5 were always going to make it an even harder day for me. Wouldn’t be getting involved at those prices, even more so in the low grade midweek stuff…

    We move on…

    Ben (BDH)

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