2015 Lincoln Handicap: Draw, Pace and Trends Analysis…

Woot! It’s the flat season already?! How the chuff did that happen!?

Naturally I’m still in total NTF mode at present, I don’t make the full switch to this side of the tracks until around Guineas time. However, as the jumps game is…eh…a little b*ll*cks at the minute (Cheltenham/Aintree limbo land is NOT a nice place!) I wanted to take a little delve into the flat stuff for the opening day of the 2015 season.

The Lincoln is a race that is prime for the post-race BDH methodology (horses running well from the wrong side of the draw) but it’s also a worthwhile race to tackle pre-race as well. Especially from a draw angle.

The 22 runners blitzing down the straight Donny mile won’t necessarily split into two groups but even within one large group there will be pace bias and that can boost the chances of some whilst inconveniencing others.

Here’s how I see the pace angle today…

Lincoln 2015

That looks like a clear bias towards the low to middle numbers. There seems to be plenty of potential pace from stall 10 and below but very little coming from stall 11 and higher. It depends on what Boom And Bust does from stall 20 but even if he does try and get to the front the higher numbers could be at a disadvantage.

Next I want to take a look at some race trends to help split the 22 runner field.

It’s not a race I go into with quite as much depth as usual on the trends front but here are the important one to help us narrow the field…

p.s. I’m only looking at renewals run at Doncaster, I’ve not included the 2007 Newcastle or the 2006 Redcar versions.

15 of the last 16 ran in a HANDICAP last time out

107 runners ran in a Non-Handicap contest last time out and only ONE won.

Applying that trend cuts the field from 22 runners to 13. Good start.

15/16 were aged 4, 5 or 6

This age group provide the most winners and it’s a sensible option to concentrate our attentions here.

13/16 were coming off a break of 90 days or more

Runners coming into the race fresh are 13/214 (6%) whilst runners coming in off a break of 89 days or less are 3/141 (2%).

Small margins when looking at overall qualifiers but it is the percentage play.

Applying those three trends leaves us with a shortlist of…

GABRIALS KAKA

BARAWEEZ

GABRIAL

GM HOPKINS

MANGE ALL

LINCOLN

A couple other notable trends to take into account are…

64 claiming jockeys have ridden in the last 16 renewals and only 1 has been victorious

An experienced jockey in the saddle seems to be a bonus in the rough and tumble of a Lincoln. That’s a potential negative for GABRIALS KAKA  from the shortlist.

97 horses have run in the last 16 renewals having had 11 runs or more in the last year and none have won.

Clearly you don’t want your horse to have been over-faced in the last 12 months and a harsh campaign does seem to be a negative. That would be against LINCOLN on the shortlist.

That would give us…

BARAWEEZ (stall 11)

GABRIAL (stall 15)

GM HOPKINS (stall 21)

MANGE ALL (stall 7)

It’s also worth looking at how the relevant trainers perform with their 90+ day runners during the March to April period…

BARAWEEZ – Brian Ellison (4/86 | 4.5% S/R)

GABRIAL – Richard Fahey (54/309 | 17.5% S/R)

GM HOPKINS – John Gosden (41/18 | 26% S/R)

MANGE ALL – William Haggas (23/72 | 32% S/R)

A negative for the Brian Ellison trained BARAWEEZ there and a serious positive for the William Haggas trained MANGE ALL.

If my draw/pace analysis is correct then MANGE ALL looks the most likely winner here. He is berthed in stall 7, is an improving 4yo and will be bouncing fit from a yard who excel with their 90+ day runners at this stage of the season.

GM HOPKINS will also be razor sharp but that draw is a concern.

At bigger prices GABRIAL looks like a player, he shouldn’t be all that inconvenienced by the draw in stall 15.

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)

*Stats sourced from the excellent Proform Professional database

 

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